The Day After: Nevada and South Carolina Edition

We know that you just voted, but South Carolina and Nevada are just not rid of us yet

Now the muddy waters are starting to clear. The Democrats of Nevada gathered and had their caucus. The Republicans of South Carolina voted their individual minds. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton started to take full control of their respective party's primary. Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio are starting to fall further out of the race. John Kasich and Ben Carson should have followed Jeb Bush out of the door. The end of February looks like the end of the 2016 Presidential primary. March will bring about the beginning of the 2016 Presidential election. Clinton vs. Trump. Who would have picked that?

The Nevada caucus became part of the national political scene in 2008. Many Democratic party leaders thought that the non diverse mostly white populations of Iowa and New Hampshire were not very representative of 21st century America. Nevada dropped their primary system and implemented a caucus. The date of the contest was also moved in order to be closer to the historically significant Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. In the two contested Nevada caucus (2008 and 2016) the winner has been Hillary Clinton, and the margin has been small.  Then Senator Clinton pulled out a razor thin victory against eventual nominee Barack Obama in 2008 and manged to defeat Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders by a few percentage points last night.

Like the Iowa caucus, Hillary Clinton's ground game seemed to bring her campaign the victory that was expected. What was once again unexpected was just how close Bernie Sanders came to taking the victory. The Clinton campaign has won two out of three primary contests, is poised to crush the Sanders campaign in the South Carolina primary, and still has very large cash reserves. With all of these advantages, Hillary Clinton is the forgone conclusion to win the Democratic party's Presidential nomination, but the Bernie Sanders campaign seems to be sticking around much longer than expected. The resilience of the Sanders campaign is fed by two key factors.

The first reason Hillary Clinton has not closed out the nomination is the fact that Bernie Sanders is the only other credible choice in the Democratic Party. His message and campaign platform gets a lot of attention, but the true reason he is still involved is that no one else legitimately challenged Hillary Clinton. The idea behind the primary process is for the voters to choose the best candidate. When there are only two choices, the lesser one will look stronger than they actually are. Many people voting for Bernie Sanders are actually voting against Hillary Clinton. There is a negligible amount of people voting for Clinton who are mainly against the Sanders campaign. The Hillary Clinton supporters are loyal and will carry her to the eventual nomination.

The second reason Bernie Sanders is still a credible candidate is because the national media so badly wants a horse race that they prop up Sanders campaign and make it look stronger than it actually is. The media has had an ugly, and misogynistic, vendetta against Hillary Clinton since the early 1990's. In order to be "fair and balanced", the political media gives voice to the ugliest voices in American society. The way Sanders near losses are covered make it look like Hillary Clinton is failing again. The press has it's personally created narrative out in the public discourse, and they have the stories that the media wishes to cover.

Speaking of the ugly voices of American society, the Republican South Carolina primary went exactly as predicted. Texas Senator Ted Cruz tried to out mud sling his opponents, but Donald Trump's hate speech won over the Palmetto state voters. Many in the political press corps thought when Trump criticized former President George W. Bush for September 11th that his chances would dwindle. The consensus was that the Republicans in South Carolina loved the former President, and Trump had finally gone to far. Candidate Jeb Bush even brought his brother out on the campaign trail to hopefully gain some support because W was so beloved. Donald Trump took just under 33% of the vote, Jeb Bush took under 8% and promptly dropped out of the 2016 Republican Presidential contest. 

The big discussion coming out after South Carolina is how the Republican party will nominate one of three men, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, or Marco Rubio. Trump seems to be to far ahead, and gaining momentum. Who would have guessed that? Senators Cruz and Rubio are the only people who have been able to mount any kind of campaign against Trump. The established Republican Party has thrown in with the inept, and bad campaigner that is Marco Rubio. The Cruz campaign is being kept alive by tea party zealots and dirty tricks. Either Rubio or Cruz will falter and fall out in the next few weeks. If Ted Cruz leaves first, Trump will coast to the nomination. The Cruz supporters hate the D.C. republicans, and Rubio is the current champion of that group. If Rubio continues to fall flat on the campaign trail, Trump and Cruz will started slinging acres worth of mud at each other's campaign. Donald Trump has spent his entire career destroying people. Ted Cruz will be no match for Trump's onslaught. Donald Trump will win the Republican Presidential nomination.

The end of February traditionally brings the near end of the Presidential primary process. 2016 does not look like it will be any different. Hillary Clinton may not seem like a candidate in control of her destiny, but she is. Donald Trump's campaign may still be unbelievable, but he is on the path to victory. The parties will be switching up states this week with the Democrats in South Carolina having their primary and the Republicans in Nevada will caucus. Will Clinton and Trump come out further ahead? Will Cruz or Rubio began their exit plan? Will anybody pay any attention to the single digit support John Kasich and Ben Carson will recieve? The biggest question is what are the Republicans going to do when Donald Trump is their nominee? It will be an election for the ages.

RD Kulik

RD is the Head editor for SeedSing. Every morning he wakes up, reads the news, and goes back to sleep hoping the Trump campaign is just a weird dream. It is not a dream. Show your liking of SeedSing over at our Facebook page.

The Day After: New Hampshire Edition

Here they come Nevada and South Carolina

Well, that is finally out of the way. The New Hampshire primary has cleared up the entire 2016 Presidential campaign. Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders will get to face off in November for the White House. The internet and national media won, their chosen candidates have emerged victorious. This circus is finally over. Will you "feel the Bern" or is it more important to "Make America Great Again". November 8th will be here before you know it. Let the national campaign begins.

Once again, I wish this was true. New Hampshire tried to clear things up way more than the Iowa Caucus. The first in the nation primary has always been the freal true test of determining who can win their respective parties nomination. Iowa is all about a candidate's ground game. Fringe candidates, especially Republicans, can use local political bosses to help sway voters away from their personal choices. The Iowa Caucus is all about the work a candidate puts in on the ground. The New Hampshire Primary allows people to vote their own preferences. Party bosses can not look you in the face and make a person change their vote. The mob can not sway the individual. In 1988 then New Hampshire Governor John H. Sununu famously said "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick Presidents". History has mostly proven Governor Sununu's words.

So that means Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination? Today is the first day that I actually started to accept the fact that Trump may incredibly be in this race until the very end. I have never believed in Trump's viability as a credible candidate for the U.S. Presidency. He does not represent the presented core philosophy of the GOP. He does however represent the ugly hate and class warfare cultivated by the Republican intelligentsia. Donald Trump is more like the zealots of the party who get relegated to being the Vice Presidential nominee (i.e. Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan and Dick Cheney).  The National Republican Committee has been very successful at getting rid of the most unelectable members of their field in years past. The Bachmanns, Santorums, Jindels, and Huckabees may have been treated as credible candidates by the incompetent media, but the less offensive John McCains and Mitt Romneys would always comfortable win out and become the party's nominee. The New Hampshire Primary is where the accepted candidate of the National Republican establishment would take control and coast to the eventual nomination. Donald Trump is not the accepted national establishment candidate. He should have stumbled in the face of the moderate Republican hopefuls.  Trump just destroyed the RNC's saviors. 

But what about John Kasich you ask? He is the RNC's hero who will slay the evil Donald Trump. That is the latest narrative of this unpredictable primary season. The national Republicans are so desperate for a "moderate" candidate that they keep promoting anyone not named Trump or Cruz. Last week, after a third place finish in Iowa, it was Florida Senator Marco Rubio. The short time in the spotlight did not do Rubio any favors. He was horrible. When the people of New Hampshire voted, Rubio was not their choice. Now with a surprising second place finish in the Granite State, the RNC will rally around Ohio Governor Kasich as their chosen one. I hate to close down this new love fest for the Ohio Governor, but John Kasich got less than 16% of the total vote. He did come in second, but it was a far distant second. If we want to anoint Kasich as a viable alternative to Trump, then you need to also consider Senator Ted Cruz and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Their margin of defeat is a whole lot closer to John Kasich than Kasich's margin of defeat is to Donald Trump. I would also argue that Trump supporters second choice for President would be Ted Cruz and vice-versa. Looking at the New Hampshire results that way gives the Trump / Cruz block just under 50% of the vote. Add in other non establishment candidates like former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and the established RNC friendly candidates polled below 50%. John Kasich, along with the rest of the "acceptable" republicans lost, and they lost bad.

So what about the nomination for the Democratic Party. It looks like Bernie Sanders, right? Not exactly. The Democratic Party's New Hampshire results were not surprising. Ever since Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders entered the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, most people expected him to easily win the Granite State. It seems like the Hillary Clinton campaign did not even put up a fight in New Hampshire, and this allowed Sanders to have a decisive victory in the primary. The Clinton campaign has seemingly unlimited resources, the near full support of the Democratic Party establishment, and a lot of states yet to vote. They did not waste time, money, or talent where they did not need to. Senator Sanders has been using his cult of personality to get great press coverage, and make the Clinton campaign sweat. That will be coming to an end very soon. The Nevada Caucus and the South Carolina primary will truly show if the Bernie Sanders campaign has any credibility. Both of those states look to be easy wins for Hillary Clinton, but Iowa also looked to be an easy win. With the money and effort saved by not contesting New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton looks like she will still easily win the Democratic Party's Presidential nomination. It was fun having Bernie Sanders around, and he brought up some important issue, but the ride may have ended in the Granite State.

That is what everything looks like on the day after New Hampshire. Donald Trump is starting to pull away and unbelievably become a major parties nominee for President. I know the establishment of the Republican Party has to be scared. I also have a feeling  that the RNC is considering some radical steps to protect their overall electoral chances in 2016. I would not be surprised if some people of influence in the Republican Party supported a third party candidate. The Democratic Party did not change course at all due to the results in New Hampshire. Senator Bernie Sanders had a nice little win, and Hillary Clinton is ready to start dominating the primary process with Nevada and South Carolina on the horizon. I may not "feel the Bern", but just yesterday I was telling people Donald Trump has zero chance to be a nominee for President of the United States. Maybe in two weeks I will have a new outlook for the Independent Senator from The Green Mountain State. I doubt it, but you never know. See you in a few weeks.

RD Kulik

RD is the Head Editor for SeedSing. He encourages your voice and donations to keep SeedSing free from big money influence. Follow us on twitter and make sure to like us on Facebook.

The Day After: Iowa Edition

Your up next New Hampshire

Now begins the end of our long national headache. Iowa has spoken and it's majority old white male population has decided on Texas Senator Ted Cruz and defender of personal home computer servers Hillary Rodham Clinton. Pack up your bags, we do not need to worry about anything until the general election on November 8th. The nation will make history on that day when we elected the first female President in United States history. This by no means is a statement of political preference, Hillary Clinton will steamroll Ted Cruz. The national electoral numbers favor the Democratic party nominee, and Ted Cruz cannot grow any new voters. Many republicans will not vote for the Texas senator who has made a career out of being an obstructionist and demeaning people in his own party. Thank the gods this whole affair is over. Iowa has spoken, the nominees are set.

How much I wish it was true that the 2016 Presidential campaign was complete. Once the votes are certified in Iowa, the annoying itch of Election 2016 is going to turn into a painful infected sore. The media has doubled down on their incompetence in trying to turn the election of the President into an awful reality show. The news out of Iowa was presented in two ways - Donald Trump loses and Hillary Clinton barely won. New Hampshire will be reported in exactly the same way. The press knows they get ratings when they talk about Trump's ascension and Clinton's struggles. Ratings are way more important than actual journalism. We deserve real journalism in respect to who we elected to lead the nation.

So did the Iowa caucuses actually tell us anything of value concerning the Presidential campaign season? Iowa is a valuable predictor for the Democratic party nominee, not so much for the Republican. Over the last twenty years the eventual Democratic Party nominee has won every Iowa Caucus.  In contrast only Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 (unopposed) has won the caucus. Go back another twenty years and the only Democratic Party nominees to lose the caucus are Bill Clinton in 1992 and Michael Dukakis in 1988. The only Republican nominees to win the caucus are an unopposed Ronald Reagan in 1984 and incumbent Gerald Ford eked out a victory in 1976. In the last forty years the Democratic nominee has won eight out of ten Iowa caucus where the Republican nominee has won five out of ten (two of those Republican wins were by incumbent Presidents who were unopposed in Iowa). If the Iowa Caucus did say anything about the 2016 election it is that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee and the Republican Party is still in disarray.

The tight margin of victory in Hillary Clinton's win is something the candidate should be worried about. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders made a better showing in Iowa than expected. His near win is due to the great ground organization his campaign built in the Hawkeye state. Hillary Clinton dismissed Barack Obama'a ground game in 2008, and she never recovered. It does look like the former Senator and Secretary of State may be making the same mistake again. Bill Clinton barely registered in Iowa during the 1992 caucus, but still won the nomination and eventually the White House that year. His biggest opposition, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt,  did not take Bill Clinton seriously as a candidate. The conventional wisdom was that Gephardt was the true democrat, and Clinton was not in line with the party's philosophy. Bill Clinton capitalized on the youth vote who felt disconnected from the old Democratic Party. This strategy helped sustain the Clinton campaign, and the out of touch Gephardt was eventually defeated. Hillary Clinton seems to be having the same Bill Clinton problem that Dick Gephardt had. Bernie Sanders is going right after the established DC Democratic Party machine, and he is winning the youth vote. Barack Obama has proven you can beat Hillary Clinton with this strategy. The Iowa Caucus did show us that Hillary Clinton is once again relying on the money from the old Democratic machine, and is quickly being seen as out of touch with the youth vote. She needs to be afraid of losing the nomination again if she does not start embracing the Democratic Party that sits outside of the DC think tanks. Iowa should be a wake up call to her campaign.

Ted Cruz's narrow win does not mean a thing. He won Iowa, like Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008. The Republicans in Iowa sure do like their candidates that have zero shot on winning the nomination. Bob Dole crushed eventual nominee George H.W. Bush in 1998. Republican Presidential nominee John McCain finished a distant fourth place in 2008. Iowa is completely insignificant to the national Republican Party. The New Hampshire Primary is a much better predictor for who will be the party's nominee. Since 1952 the eventual Republican Party Presidential nominee has won the New Hampshire Primary thirteen out of sixteen times. On the day after Iowa, the Republican Party is right where it was on the day before.

The beginning of the end that is the 2016 Presidential campaign has begun. The caucus goers of Iowa have spoken, and told us nothing. The Clinton campaign needs to learn from 2008 and not make the same mistakes. It does not look like they have learned. The Republican Party needs to not read that much into Ted Cruz's victory, Iowa rarely matters to their base. The 2016 election has officially started. Our long national headache is coming to an end.

RD Kulik

RD is the Head Editor for SeedSing and the host of the X Millennial Man podcast. He really wants some great writers to assist him with the 2016 election season - write for SeedSing. He also really wants to pay those writers - Support SeedSing.