With the news that Trae Young declared for the NBA draft today, I want to take a peek at some of the "one and done" guys that are most likely going to declare for the draft, if they haven't already. I am not a fan of the "one and done" culture in basketball. These colleges that do this are basically basketball factories, and these kids do not see a dime off the colleges making money hand over fist. It has also made the college game not nearly as good as it used to be, and as it could. It is a bummer, and I do not like it. I'd rather they adopt the MLB rule of, if you declare for the draft straight out of high school, you can go. But, if you decide that you need college, you have to stay for at least 2 years. It would be so much better for all involved.
Anyway, lets take a look at five "one and done" players that I think, given the situation they may be drafted in, how I think they will fare in the pros. The five players I have chosen are Trae Young, Deandre Ayton, Mo Bamba, Marvin Bagley and Jaren Jackson Jr. Now, I think 3 of these 5 kids will have solid, to really good, NBA careers. The two I am most curious about are Young and Bamba, so I will save them for last. I want to start with the only player on my list that is left in the tournament, Marvin Bagley. This kid has the potential to be special. Duke players, save for Kyrie Irving, that are one and done, usually don't strive in the NBA. Austin Rivers is a bench player, Jahlil Okafor is a bust, Justice Winslow is not as good as many thought, me included, he could be and Tyus Jones is finally out of the G League and on a roster, but it took awhile. Bagley is better than all these guys. He is an explosive athlete that can hit open shots with ease. He is also a lefty, and that is an advantage in and of itself. He attacks the rim and he can do some highlight reel dunks. But, some has reported that he is a bit selfish. He is kind of out there to get his stats and move up on draft boards. The kid is already super high on most boards, so I don't know why he would do this. I will say, the few times I have watched him play, I have not seen him pass the ball. He either shoots a pull up shot, catches a lob or grabs a rebound and goes. This is a good and bad thing. Believing in yourself is great, to an extent. If he thinks this will fly in the NBA, he will be in for a rude awakening, unless the Kings draft him. In fact, if the Kings draft any of these kids, their careers will be very blah. But, say a team like Chicago or even the Nets draft him, that could be what is best for him. He could go into Chicago and team up with Kris Dunn, Lauri Markannen and Zach Lavine, and that would be a fun, young team to watch. In Brooklyn, he could be the guy to build the team around. They have some talent, Caris Levert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Bagley would only ad to that. If he gets picked by one of these two teams, I think he will have a fine career. Any other team, he might be more Brandon Ingram than anyone else.
Next, Jaren Jackson Jr. This kid is good, thick and can run and shoot. He is a beast on the block and the boards. He can shoot the ball very well. He is already big enough for the pounding in the NBA. He comes from a family of athletes. I think Jackson Jr may have the brightest future of all these "one and done" players. I think he would be a great fit for any team, except the Kings and the Suns. Again, the Kings franchise is a dumpster fire with a very gloomy future. Every kid they seem to draft either gets traded or flames out, or both. I don't want any of these kids to get picked by the Kings. As far as the Suns, I like their young core, and they have very good players already at his position. I don't want them to take another 19 year old and stunt the growth of the 19, 20 and 21 year olds on that team. That would hurt every player involved, especially Jackson Jr. He would be relegated to "learn" from someone who has only been in the league one or two years more than him, and that is no way to learn how to be a professional athlete. I would love to see Jackson Jr go to a team like Memphis or Cleveland, if LeBron stays. I think he would fit it perfectly in Memphis, they'd love him immediately. Cleveland, with LeBron, might even be better. He would be the ideal replacement for Tristan Thompson, and he can stretch the defense more than Thompson can right now.
My favorite player in this upcoming draft is Deandre Ayton. He was the reason I picked Arizona to win it all. What a dumb choice by me. But, that is besides the point. Ayton has a very, very bright future. He could be the modern day Patrick Ewing. This kid can pretty much do it all right now, and do it very well. He is an excellent rim protector and rebounder. He can fill up the stat sheet. He is super fast. He was the guy for Arizona this year. He, honestly, has no real flaws in his game to me. The kid was made to play basketball. I would love if he ended up on a team like Minnesota or San Antonio or even OKC, but they will all be picking way too late. He will, most likely, be the first pick. So, that means he is going to end up on a team like Phoenix, Chicago, Memphis, Boston or, possibly, the Knicks. Truthfully, I would love to see him in New York, playing next to a healthy Porzingis. That would be quite the front court. Imagine trying to score on 2 7 plus footers. It would be a nightmare. They would also be great on the offensive end. It could be a modern day Tim Duncan and David Robinson situation. I am really talking myself into Ayton being a Knick. I don't necessarily like the Memphis fit because Gasol is their big guy. Chicago would be okay because of their youth movement. Phoenix has some young big men, buy Ayton is already better than all of them. If Boston somehow got him that would be unfair. He and Horford is better than him and Porzingis. Just don't let the Kings get this kid because I don't want to see him get ruined by the age of 22.
Now, the 2 biggest question marks for me. First, Mo Bamba. I have to say, I like Bamba as a player, I just do not think he is ready for the NBA. There were games where he flat out disappeared on offense this year at Texas. He was always great defensively. He altered so many shots, or just blocked them. I remember earlier this season when Michigan played at Texas, they just decided pretty soon that it was a jump shooting night for them because of Bamba's presence in the lane. But, as I said, he goes MIA on offense far too much. He is also very skinny for his 7'1 frame. He looks like a twig out there. When he has to go up against centers like Gasol, Clint Capela, Deandre Jordan and Anthony Davis, he is going to get abused. I think it would be best for him to come back for one more year, bulk up and work on his offense. I don't think he will because he is pretty much guaranteed to be a lottery pick, and that is a lot of money to pass up. But, I think he needs, at least, one more year to develop before he is fully ready for the NBA.
Which leads me to my final guy for the day, Trae Young. The things Young did on the court this year were amazing, and never before seen in college hoops, at least not recently. The kid scored 20 plus points and dished out nearly 10 assists a game. He was truly all Oklahoma had. He was the end all be all for that team. For awhile, it worked, then teams started to game plan for him, and Young and Oklahoma kind of took a tumble. They looked pretty bad the rest of the season after reaching the top 5 of the polls. But, even while "struggling", Young still was putting up 20 and 9 a night. People seemed to think he petered out, but he didn't. It just wasn't 40 points and 15 assists every night anymore. We began to expect too much from an 18 year old leading his college team. What I fear for him is the same thing that happened to Shabazz Napier. The thing with Napier though, he was a senior, and he handled his situation a little better. What I mean by this, LeBron fell in love with Napier during his last year in Miami, and basically told them they had to draft Napier, and then he left. Now, he has been on the Trae Young bandwagon from day one and has made it clear he wants the Cavs to draft him. But, what if he decides to bolt for another team again? Then Trae Young is in the same situation that Kyrie Irving was in, except he isn't nearly as good as Irving was/is. Young can do a lot of great things on the floor, but he is not Kyrie Irving. Irving is a transcendent player. He is one of the better point guards now. He has proven he can perform on the biggest stages all the most crucial moments. Young couldn't do that in college, and if the Cavs take him, then LeBron leaves, the city of Cleveland will be counting on him to be their new "savior". He does not deserve that. I would love him to go to a team with a good starting point guard right now, a team like Memphis or Boston, play bench minutes and learn the game. That would be ideal for him. I think Young has a future, but if he ends up in Cleveland and LeBron bolts, that would be very jarring.
I hope all these kids have long careers because I think they can be good, they just need to be put in the right position. Only time will tell.
Ty
Ty is the Pop Culture editor for SeedSing, the other host of the X Millennial Man Podcast, and the greatest basketball writer on all the internet.
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