Ty's 2022 NBA Draft Preview
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The NBA draft happens this evening. I used to get super pumped up for this when I was a kid. I don't watch anymore, but my son is as hype as I used to get. I love that he is this involved with basketball now. Anyway, I am going to do my annual draft preview. I'll give you five guys I like and a few sentences why, five I'm not so high on and a few sentences why, and finish it off with a sleeper or two that I'm high on.
This draft is pretty solid. The top three picks, maybe even four, are pretty set, but I have one of those guys in my dudes I'm not so high on. But this draft is deep and there looks to be some solid rotation players that will be picked tonight. Here we go.
As for the guys I like, first off, I adore Jaden Ivey. He is going to be very good. He is fast and can get to the rim. His shot is not great yet, but that could come with time, just look at Kawhi Leonard. Ivey also plays defense. He is as ready to go from day one as any prospect in this draft. I think that, even if the Kings draft him, he is going to have a very, very good career.
I also really like consensus number 1 pick Jabari Smith. He is 6'10 first off. He has a calm demeanor. I watched him play a few times this year and he was always the best player on the floor. He can shoot. He is a great rebounder. He has all the skill set you want in a modern big. And he is very young. He is only going to get bigger. Smith is a top tier prospect.
Speaking of top tier prospects, I love Paolo Banchero as an NBA player. He is also 6'10. He is as good, maybe even better, at cutting to the rim than Ivey is. He is a bully going to the rim. He is bigger than a good chunk of NBA players now. He may loaf off on defense from time to time, but he is also only 19. He will get better at that. I also like his attitude. He is not cocky, he is confident. I usually do not like Duke guys, but Banchero is different. He has been ready to play in the NBA for a few years now. College was just another year to grow and learn. I truly think he will end up being the best player in this draft.
I'm pretty high on Ochai Agbaji. I've always been a fan of guys that stay in school longer to get better. He was also the best player on the team that won it all. Even when he wasn't shooting well he was old enough to do other things to help his team win. He can shoot. He can play defense. He is ready to go. He will be a late lottery pick which means he will end up on a team fighting for the playoffs, which will only help him more. This kid is good and will be a very good bench player in the NBA.
My final prospect I like is Johnny Davis. I watched this kid a ton this year since he played in the Big Ten and he is legit. He can score from anywhere. He has confidence for days. Without him Wisconsin would have been a below .500 team. He took over games at times. He made me so mad because he always seemed to make big shots against teams I was rooting for. He is an offensive machine already. I could see him, depending on which team drafts him, scoring 16-17 points a night in his rookie year. Johnny Davis is an elite level scorer. He is a very, very poor man's Devin Booker right now who will only get better.
Now to the prospects I'm not crazy about.
First off, and most importantly, I have Chet Holmgren here. I have been hearing about this kid since his senior year in high school. I heard all of the KD comparisons. I heard people say he could be like Giannis. I even heard Anthony Davis stuff. But when I watched him this past season at Gonzaga I was left unimpressed. He wasn't even the best player on that team. Drew Timme and Andrew Nembhard were better. There were times where Holmgren looked lost. He fouled a lot. He can block shots because he is so tall, but he had to track the block more than actually make it. He was not an impressive scorer. Going to Gonzaga let him play against lesser college level competition. And when he played the best of the best he disappeared. He is too skinny and will need, at the very least, two years to put on real weight. He is going to get destroyed in the paint by most centers in the NBA. He needs to bulk up and he needs time. I don't know that he'll get either.
I'm not crazy about Keegan Murray. This is another guy I watched a lot, Big Ten team, and he did not leave me feeling like Johnny Davis did. Murray would not do stuff for long stretches. There were games where he'd get numbers, but they felt hollow. His release is slow. He is not a great defender. He flops a lot. He is a lot like Jimmer Fredette, but doesn't shoot threes at the clip Fredette did in college. Keegan Murray is going to be a high pick, but I do not think he has the goods to be a starter or early bench guy. He feels like a deep bench player at best.
I do not know what to make of Shaedon Sharpe. This kid is high on all the "experts" lists, but I have never seen him play basketball before. Darius Garland at least played a few games at Wake. Michael Porter Jr got some run at Mizzou. The G League guys are playing against former pros every day. Sharpe has not played a real game in over a year. I simply do not know what type of player he will be, and I am not going to lose my mind over some high school highlights from two years ago. I would not take a risk on a player like Sharpe in the lottery. I do not know what I am getting at all. I would not want to wager the future of my team on a kid that hasn't played a real game since he was 17 years old. There is too much unknown about Shaedon Sharpe.
I am flabbergasted that Chritian Braun is being mocked in the late first round. This kid is a late second rounder at best. He doesn't shoot the three like a Duncan Robinson or Buddy Hield. He can't get to the rim with ease like other guards can in the NBA. He isn't much of a defensive guy. He has energy, but so did Matthew Dellavedova. I just don't see him being more than a deep bench guy at best. I saw him mocked to the Warriors at 28, and people said they could stash him in the G League for a few years, akin to what they did with Jordan Poole, but Poole was a proven scorer in college. I don't think the same can be said for Braun. I just do not see first round talent in this kid.
Finally, as much as I like his name, TyTy Washington has a long road ahead of him before he is a real NBA player. He was oft injured at Kentucky. He would get hit lightly on drives to the basket and went down like a heap. He isn't a sharp shooter. His defense is average. He is short for his position in the NBA. He has a ton of work. Of the five kids I mentioned in this group I will be rooting for Washington the most, but he has a ton of work to do. I have noticed that he is slipping down draft boards as of late too. Maybe these teams are seeing what I saw all season. Washington is a major work in progress.
To end this draft preview I want to point out two "sleepers" in this draft. My first is Bryce McGowens, yet another Big Ten player I saw a ton of this past season. Nebraska was a nightmare to watch, with the exception of McGowens. This kid is a pure scorer. He may be one of the better offensive players in the entire draft. He is going to be an absolute microwave off the bench. I think a player like McGowens has way more in common with someone like Jordan Poole than a player like Christian Braun does. McGowens is going to need to gain weight and learn to take and use contact. But when he does he is going to be a nightmare to guard in the NBA. He is going to be a top bench player in about three or four years, when he is only 21 or 22 years old. McGowens is an elite scorer, and whatever team takes him in round 2 is going to be thrilled.
Finally I'd like to point out David Roddy from Colorado State. He is big. He can score. He can shoot. He is a good rebounder. He is an okay enough defender. He was the all around leader of a team that won 25 plus games last year and earned a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. I saw him in the tourney and he nearly torched Michigan. This kid is good. He is a big body who can out muscle guys and pull 4's and 5's out of the post due to the threat of his shot. I feel like he may go undrafted, or be picked very late, but he will end up having a PJ Tucker type career with a little more scoring. Roddy is a good ball player.
Alright there is my 2022 NBA draft preview. Hopefully there will be crazy trades and the kids I am not so high on prove me wrong. And I know my son is stoked to watch. Should be a good time.
Ty
Ty is the Pop Culture editor for SeedSing, the other host of the X Millennial Man Podcast, and the greatest basketball writer on the internet.