Predicting the Rest of an Unpredictable Men's College Basketball Tournament

The current state of everyone's brackets

As I've done with my NBA preview, my NFL preview and my college basketball preview, I'm going to look back at what was right and wrong since the first weekend of the madness that is March is through. You can go back and read my five things I thought would happen before the tournament started and you can listen to our mini episode of the podcast to hear my initial thoughts.

Right out of the gate, I was way off about Michigan State, as was almost everyone else. They really laid an incredible egg against Middle Tennessee State. I don't want to hear about other reporters saying that MTSU was wrongly seeded and that they are a really good team either. Sure, they won 20 plus games, but just look at what happened against a very mediocre Syracuse team yesterday. Michigan State would have dismantled that same Syracuse team had they taken care of business on Friday, but they didn't. MSU got out played, out hustled and out coached by a very inferior team. This has to be the biggest upset in the history of the tournament. Sure, NC State had no business beating Houston when they had Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler and Norfolk State beat a much better Missouri team in 2012, but this win by MTSU was, at least in my lifetime, the biggest upset ever. MSU didn't even choke away this game, MTSU just straight up beat them, never trailing. I assumed that MSU's size and experience would make, not only this game a walk through, but that they'd coast to the title. I was way wrong, but so was pretty much everyone else. MSU blew it and they lose a ton of players to graduation. This was a major shake up that busted millions of brackets all over the country.

Then, there were my thoughts on the ACC that I was way off base on as well. Of the 16 teams remaining, 6 are from the ACC. That's impressive. Miami beat Wichita State with relative ease. Sure, WSU made it close, even taking a one point lead in the second half, but Miami started and finished that game strong and they deserved to win. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has been incredibly luck in their run to the sweet sixteen. They were down 12 at halftime to Michigan, then Michigan went ice cold and they started to make some clutch shots and Michigan still had a chance at the end until Zak Irvin took a terrible three. Also, Michigan wasn't even supposed to make that a game. Then, yesterday against Stephen F Austin, they needed a miracle tip in with one second left. SFA should have won that game and all they needed to do was box a guy out and they'd still be in it. I still don't trust Notre Dame. Syracuse got lucky with their draw. They were bigger than Dayton, then they got to play MTSU. They don't impress me at all. Duke was down at halftime against UNC Wilmington and it took the refs giving them every single call in the second half for them to win in round one. Then, they come out and shot a ridiculous percentage from three against Yale, push their lead all the way up to 27 at one point in the second half, then let Yale get back in it, getting as close as four points. Duke can't rebound and they will lose soon. Virginia has looked good. They play a slower style of basketball and they play suffocating defense. They've had an easy draw, but they have looked pretty good in their two wins. They could make final four noise if they keep this play up.

The team I was hardest on, UNC, has looked really, really good. They look like the team that was the preseason number one pick and a lot of people's pick to win the title. They cruised in round one and then they absolutely throttled Providence in round two. They look scary good right now, especially since Marcus Paige is making shots. I regret not having more respect for them. They could get to the title game if they keep it up.

My two play in 11 seeds really let me down. Michigan looked sloppy against Tulsa, but they won. Then, they came out on fire in the first half against Notre Dame, but fizzled in the second half. They should have won, but they couldn't finish, that was their problem all year long. Wichita State looked really good against Vanderbilt in their play in win, but they came out completely flat and ice cold against Miami. They put themselves in too big a hole and they could never get out of it. I was let down by both these teams. Northern Iowa also had a huge choke last night when they let Texas A&M make up a 12 point deficit in 40 seconds. I said, on the podcast, I thought they could make a run, but they really blew it last night. That was probably the biggest choke job I've ever witnessed. At least Gonzaga, another double digit seed I liked, has looked pretty good. They've won both their games handily and now they get to face an inferior Syracuse team for a shot at the elite eight.

The Big 12 has been a let down for me. I thought that they'd represent 75 percent of the final four. Sure, Kansas and Oklahoma are still there and they look good too. KU has had no problem with their first two games and they should coast to the final four. And Oklahoma, while VCU put a scare in them, made in on the heels of Buddy Hield. He has to be the player of the year now after MSU and Denzel Valentine's shocking and embarrassing loss. Without Hield yesterday, Oklahoma doesn't win that game. He is a scoring machine. But, the Baylor's and West Virginia's of the world really blew it. Baylor got outplayed by Yale. Baylor was bigger, but Yale out rebounded them. Side note, if you want to see something truly great, go back and watch the Baylor postgame conference when a reporter asked a Baylor player how they got out rebounded by Yale. This player's response is priceless and hilarious. Baylor would have crushed Duke had they taken care of business, but now we will never know. West Virginia looked bad in their opener. SFA did anything it wanted at anytime against WVU. I thought WVU had final four potential, but has Bob Huggins ever really done anything of note since leaving Cincinnati except for blowing winnable games. That game was a joke and WVU looked pretty terrible.

I was also wrong about a Big Ten team winning the title. I thought it would be MSU in a cake walk. I was wrong and so was the majority of everyone else. The Big Ten still has three teams left, but who really believes Maryland or Wisconsin will win the title? I know in my preseason preview I picked Maryland, but that was a straight up guess and after watching them this past weekend, there is no way they are a championship level team. And Wisconsin got very lucky in both games. They were ice cold against Pitt, but Pitt was even colder. Then, they hit a buzzer beater to beat Xavier. That play was beautiful, but it should have never happened. That charge that was called on Xavier was one of the worst calls in a basketball game at any level. That ref wanted to determine the outcome of the game and that should never be the case. But, that terrible call let us witness one of the best in bounds plays of all time. There is no way either of Maryland or Wisconsin wins the title. Indiana, on the other hand, I do believe in. I had them picked to beat Kentucky and they looked decent doing it. They made big plays when they needed to and got stops when they needed to. They are the Big Ten's best shot at a title this year. 

Where we stand now, we have 6 ACC teams, 3 Big Ten Teams, 3 Big 12 teams, 1 Big East team, 1 SEC team, 1 Pac 12 team and 1 mid major. The way I see it now, the Big 12 is not getting all three in, but they have an excellent shot at 2. Iowa State will probably lose to Virginia later this week, KU should have no problem with Maryland, then they will get the winner of Miami-Villanova, which should be another cake walk for them. Oklahoma gets a very young and inexperienced Texas A&M team they should beat, then the winner of Oregon, the most overrated one seed of all time perhaps, and Duke, who I have ZERO trust in. They can win their next two games with ease. Unfortunately for the Big Ten, Maryland will probably lose to KU, Wisconsin can and should beat Notre Dame, but then they get the winner of Indiana-UNC who would crush them, and that leaves Indiana, and they have to face a red hot UNC team right now and I just don't see them beating UNC. The ACC's best shot, of the 6 remaining teams they have left, is either UNC or Virginia. I think Miami will have it's hands full with Villanova. Duke will probably lose to Oregon. Syracuse is going to get destroyed by Gonzaga. But, Virginia should beat Iowa State, setting up a showdown with Gonzaga, in what would be a great game. And UNC, if they beat Indiana, will coast over either Notre Dame or Wisconsin. UNC has the easiest and most likely path for an ACC team. Sorry Pac 12, Oregon will not represent your conference in the final four. St, Joe's should have won last night, but either Duke or the winner of Texas A&M-Oklahoma will end your season. Same thing for the SEC. A&M is too young and too inexperienced and they also got incredibly lucky to still be in this tournament, their season will end soon enough. Villanova will be its usual choking self soon, probably against Miami. They will find a way to lose because that is what they do. Which leaves me with Gonzaga. I love Gonzaga this year and they have been very impressive thus far. They will beat Syracuse which will most likely set them up against Virginia. I think they can easily win that game and go to the final four. They are playing top notch basketball at the right time.

So, if I have to pick a final four with the 16 remaining teams, I will go with KU in the South, Oklahoma in the West, UNC in the East and Gonzaga in the Midwest. I think from those four teams, KU and UNC will play for the title and I think KU wins. That's how I see it now. I will admit that this tournament has been fun to watch. While it may not always be appealing to your eyes, at least there's been buzzer beaters and upsets galore after the first weekend. Hopefully, that continues throughout the rest of this wacky and wild tournament.

Ty

Ty is the Pop Culture editor for SeedSing and the other host of the X Millennial Man podcast. He takes gret solace in the fact that not only his, but every realistic person out there, has a busted bracket. It is madness if you are not following Ty on twitter @tykulik.